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Abstract. The chemical compound 1,2-dichloroethane (DCE), or ethylene dichloride, is an industrial very short-lived substance (VSLS) whose major use is as a feedstock in the production chain of polyvinyl chloride (PVC). Like other chlorinated VSLSs, transport of DCE (and/or its atmospheric oxidation products) to the stratosphere could contribute to ozone depletion there. However, despite annual production volumes greatly exceeding those of more prominent VSLSs (e.g. dichloromethane), global DCE observations are sparse; thus, the magnitude and distribution of DCE emissions and trends in its atmospheric abundance are poorly known. In this study, we performed an exploratory analysis of the global DCE budget between 2002 and 2020. Combining bottom-up data on annual production and assumptions around fugitive losses during production and feedstock use, we assessed the DCE source strength required to reproduce atmospheric DCE observations. We show that the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT 3-D chemical transport model (CTM) reproduces DCE measurements from various aircraft missions well, including HIPPO (2009–2011), ATom (2016–2018), and KORUS-AQ (2016), along with surface measurements from Southeast Asia, when assuming a regionally varying production emission factor in the range of 0.5 %–1.5 %. Our findings imply substantial fugitive losses of DCE and/or substantial emissive applications (e.g. solvent use) that are poorly reported. We estimate that DCE's global source increased by ∼ 45 % between 2002 (349 ± 61 Gg yr−1) and 2020 (505 ± 90 Gg yr−1), with its contribution to stratospheric chlorine increasing from 8.2 (± 1.5) to ∼ 12.9 (± 2.4) ppt Cl (where ppt denotes parts per trillion) over this period. DCE's relatively short overall tropospheric lifetime (∼ 83 d) limits, although does not preclude, its transport to the stratosphere, and we show that its impact on ozone is small at present. Annually averaged, DCE is estimated to have decreased ozone in the lower stratosphere by up to several parts per billion (< 1 %) in 2020, although a larger effect in the springtime Southern Hemisphere polar lower stratosphere is apparent (decreases of up to ∼ 1.3 %). Given strong potential for growth in DCE production tied to demand for PVC, ongoing measurements would be of benefit to monitor potential future increases in its atmospheric abundance and its contribution to ozone depletion.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available December 6, 2025
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Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is losing mass as the climate warms through both increased meltwater runoff and ice discharge at marine-terminating sectors. At the ice sheet surface, meltwater runoff forms a dynamic supraglacial hydrological system which includes stream and river networks and large supraglacial lakes (SGLs). Streams and rivers can route water into crevasses or into supraglacial lakes with crevasses underneath, both of which can then hydrofracture to the ice sheet base, providing a mechanism for the surface meltwater to access the bed. Understanding where, when, and how much meltwater is transferred to the bed is important because variability in meltwater supply to the bed can increase ice flow speeds, potentially impacting the hypsometry of the ice sheet in grounded sectors, and iceberg discharge to the ocean. Here we present a new, physically based, supraglacial hydrology model for the GrIS that is able to simulate (a) surface meltwater routing and SGL filling; (b) rapid meltwater drainage to the ice sheet bed via the hydrofracture of surface crevasses both in and outside of SGLs; (c) slow SGL drainage via overflow in supraglacial meltwater channels; and, by offline coupling with a second model, (d) the freezing and unfreezing of SGLs from autumn to spring. We call the model the Supraglacial Hydrology Evolution and Drainage (or SHED) model. We apply the model to three study regions in southwest Greenland between 2015 and 2019 (inclusive) and evaluate its performance with respect to observed supraglacial lake extents and proglacial discharge measurements. We show that the model reproduces 80 % of observed lake locations and provides good agreement with observations in terms of the temporal evolution of lake extent. Modelled moulin density values are in keeping with those previously published, and seasonal and inter-annual variability in proglacial discharge agrees well with that which is observed, though the observations lag the model by a few days since they include transit time through the subglacial system, while the model does not. Our simulations suggest that lake drainage behaviours may be more complex than traditional models suggest, with lakes in our model draining through a combination of both overflow and hydrofracture and with some lakes draining only partially and then refreezing. This suggests that, in order to simulate the evolution of Greenland's surface hydrological system with fidelity, a model that includes all of these processes needs to be used. In future work, we will couple our model to a subglacial model and an ice flow model and thus use our estimates of where, when, and how much meltwater gets to the bed to understand the consequences for ice flow.more » « less
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